EURUSD Let’s start with the big picture. We don’t think the dollar rally is over. We’re looking for one more drop below parity prior to a larger euro rally. A break of the internal trendline from the wave W and (D) lows, which would be back above last week’s high, would alter the short term … Is the “Trump Risk Rally” Over?
EURUSD The euro has bounced from support just above parity, although we think this bounce is corrective. Given the impulsive nature of the US equity rally, it seems that the policy divergence I’ve so often mocked, may actually prove to come to reality. Certainly, a couple of .25% rate hikes by summer may be the … Yen Short Term Strength, then 175.00
EURUSD Our top two counts suggest the euro will visit parity against the dollar. First, there’s the top count which calls for an immediate collapse, likely having something to do with the banking system or breakup risk coming to the fore. Friday’s big topping tail suggests that prices will immediately head down, and potentially to … Elliott Waves in 2017
EURUSD The euro put in a big reversal bar on Monday after Italy’s referendum. We’re counting the decline from Friday’s high as a three wave move (see below), and that wave (2) completed on Thursday. You can see it retraced between 38.2% and 50% of wave (1), a much more typical retracement than the small … Euro Not Out of the Woods
We’ve long been looking for some type of bad news out of Europe that would allow for the euro to trade lower versus the dollar, rather than good news out of the US that would push the dollar higher. We may get that today. The Italian referendum today could be the nail in the coffin … Italy Vote in Focus
We’re only going to address the elephant in the room (Trump election) to remind readers that social mood governs markets, and its process is endogenous. Meaning social mood moves of its own volition; it is not controlled by politicians. Trump’s election will create certain winners and losers, but it will NOT CHANGE ANY UNDERLYING TRENDS. … Trump, the Dollar & Yen Crash
EURUSD Last week’s blast higher puts our top count on the shelf for the moment. The sharp nature of the rally makes it look like wave (a) of 2. So, a down start to the week, followed by a push higher to test the broken trendline for wave 2 is our best count. The alternate … Dollar Loses “Policy Divergence” Strength
While I believe that all markets trade in Elliott waves, sometimes the waves aren’t perfect. Sometimes wave 4 overlaps wave 1 by a few pips, and sometimes what looks like five down in an ever expanding market (like stocks which are measured in a depreciating currency) is actually a false break. Regardless of being a … Perfect Elliott Waves