We’re only going to address the elephant in the room (Trump election) to remind readers that social mood governs markets, and its process is endogenous. Meaning social mood moves of its own volition; it is not controlled by politicians. Trump’s election will create certain winners and losers, but it will NOT CHANGE ANY UNDERLYING TRENDS. … Trump, the Dollar & Yen Crash
EURUSD Last week’s blast higher puts our top count on the shelf for the moment. The sharp nature of the rally makes it look like wave (a) of 2. So, a down start to the week, followed by a push higher to test the broken trendline for wave 2 is our best count. The alternate … Dollar Loses “Policy Divergence” Strength
While I believe that all markets trade in Elliott waves, sometimes the waves aren’t perfect. Sometimes wave 4 overlaps wave 1 by a few pips, and sometimes what looks like five down in an ever expanding market (like stocks which are measured in a depreciating currency) is actually a false break. Regardless of being a … Perfect Elliott Waves
We’ve made the case for well over a year now that our “dollar strength” theme, is more like “other currency weakness” than any “policy divergence.” In other words, it’s the underlying weakness in European and Asian economies that are allowing their currencies to fall against the dollar; as oppossed to dollar strength coming from the … Entering Capital Preservation Mode
EURUSD Last week’s title was dead on, “Euro to Follow the Pound.” The breakdown from the triangle happened on Tuesday, and it was straight down from there, likely completing wave (i). A small bounce may develop in wave (ii), but remember what we cautioned several weeks ago. This triangle has been so long in development, … EURUSD Out of the Triangle!
EURUSD There was a short term break down on Thursday which looked like our top count from last week playing out. But, Friday’s reversal keeps the euro in a triangle, of a triangle, of a triangle, per our alternate count from last week. Unless prices push impulsively above the wave C high, we’re inclined to … Euro to Follow the Pound
EURUSD We remain on the side that this consolidation is corrective in nature, and that a collapse is coming. The European banking system is woefully under capitalized, and the bailout structures aren’t in place. We have little doubt that the ECB and Brussels will cobble a system together once it’s deemed necessary, but the problem … Euro’s Spring Compressed
We’ve all heard comments like, “Orange is the new black.” Well, in today’s upside-down world of monetary policy all three major central banks decided to not loosen policy further. Most market participants were disappointed, although it did spark some “risk-on” behavior. But, underneath the bullish action, some subtle deterioration in the “Central Banker Omnipotence” theme … ECB, BoJ & Fed Tighten By Failing to Loosen Policy