The day after tomorrow (Wednesday, June 21) I will be the speaker of the Vancouver Forex Meetup, where I will talk about the early stages of a market cycle. Besides the theoretical, technical and psychological insights, we will study two possible bases of the GBPUSD, USDCHF pairs and check out a the measurement methods on … Meetup Charts
When it comes to the chart pattern of double tops, traders often look for perfection. I would like to advise against perfection; and, instead, introduce how to search for the taste of a “good enough pattern.” Imagine that prices progress in an uptrend and then suddenly find resistance. Prices pull backs then turns north again, … Trading the imperfect double top – PART I.
The August SPX decline had strong momentum, and the October rally was also relentless. What is the trend then? When prices are capable of gaining momentum in both directions, it causes confusion in traders’ heads. Confusion calls for woes and fear. When the emotion becomes strong, price volatility increases and persists; trends seem to emerge suddenly … SPX Pinball: Room To Grow… To the Right
Following the harsh bear spiral on the crude oil market in 2014, not much price change has happened so far this year. The year’s overall sideways look, and the sustainable bear RSI levels on the weekly chart, suggest the continuation of the bearish tendencies. As we put it in the Glossary section of TraderSkillset.com, when … Crude Oil Chart with Elliott and RSI from Laszlo’s Trading Room
Traders can profit from a set of lines that enables them to tell apart a trend from a correction. This discernment is essential when it comes to adjusting our trading strategy to the current market condition. What is more, these easy to draw lines represent a thinking process aimed at the proper assessment of the … Trend Division Line
This weekly chart reviews the end of the stalling pattern, an almost totally ranging action where “bulls were not interested” in buying new highs anymore. It covered 314 S&P points to the north which is not bad considering the strength of gravity at this height. Studying the internal details of the structure might be a … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: S&P 500 life after the stalling pattern
This week’s bar looks bad, so far, and looking at the short term charts there is a good chance it will remain that way. If it does, this week’s candle with the previous two bear bars would confirm the kick-start of the larger degree reversal, following the a completion of the diagonal pattern. The new … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: S&P500 Bulls Not Interested
One core flaw traders make is when they use support and resistance levels, trend lines or Elliott waves alone – in other words, only “Context type” of ideas. Others traders fancy near term price action or candlesticks analysis alone, and they miss the forest for the trees by relying totally on the right side of … NZDUSD Trading Signal Was “Against the Odds”
Maybe traders have heard my trading advice along the lines, don’t take a momentum entry following an elongated range market. I say that because prices did “drag to new highs lacking any enthusiastic follow through.” This market is not for the faint of heart of trend traders for a good reason. The tight way the weekly … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: S&P500 Tipping Point
Looking at the S&P500 chart we can consider the structure as an ending diagonal in Intermediate wave (5) of Primary  position. The diagonal has been under construction since October 2014 when price carved out the Intermediate wave (4) low. The S&P500 has started to respect every possible resistance from early December and has played … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: S&P500 Almost on the Go
The first chart today is from our April 13 S&P500 “sandwich” post, and it shows the actual path prices traveled in the last two weeks or so. This close match demonstrates how powerful Elliott’s wave principle is when it comes to understanding the price action context. Nevertheless we are showing this chart for two other … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: SPX Failure Falls Short
I see this mistake all the time – from runners, and traders. You probably have observed the same in other type of activities as well. The proverbial salmon swimming upstream. Let me explain. I ran the Vancouver Sun Run 10K this past weekend, and there was a vivid reminder of being aware of your environment. … Use the Force, Luke
Monday, 0:23 a.m. The S&P500 has not been to a new high since February 25; that is to say, for 31 trading days now. Despite the all-time-high drought, we have not observed too much bearish activity; the deepest spot formed less than a 4% decline than the 2,120 SPX peak. When the market is so firmly … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: The S&P500 Sandwich
It may seem like I’m repeating this for the hundredth time, but: a trend change is a process not an event. The obvious sign of the bears’ courage, and also doubt on the buyers’ side, is a lower high forming on the price chart. It is the first time since May 2012 when a lower … SPX sellers strike early
High expectations regarding a single word and a news event are hardly ever the starting point of a new trend, but they can well ignite a short covering rally against a bear the trend. It is also common to to see a news event cap a correction resuming a larger down trend, but not so … EURUSD in the FOMC turbulence
We would like to welcome our latest Twitter follower, the esteemed David Einhorn who is the founder and President of Greenlight Capital, a long/short hedge fund. We are honored, humbled and motivated to continue to strive for excellence through promotion of our Context, Momentum, Signal trading approach for all of our Twitter followers, but David’s addition … Time For Business Insider to Update Its Numbers
Previously we had discussed the key support of 2,085 on the S&P500, and 208.78 on the SPY ETF, which was broken on Friday. Then prices tested resistance and confirmed the bear breakdown during Monday’s session. Prices have broken the level that divided the bull and bear scenarios, and so it’s now resistance. Tuesday’s drop through the new … Impulsive break – S&P 500 chart update
Would you like to become a professional trader or just improve your results? What is your idea about trading for living? The mindset behind a successful trading career might surprise you. Process is more important than prediction. Repeatable work, that you do again and again, is the secret sauce of the trader. So, before you … Secrets To Better Trading – Video
The SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) was able to poke into the green “sustainable bull momentum area” not just once but three times. I bet many traders see the gradual increase of the last two days as a wedge or ending diagonal, just like the RSI does; but, at this high of an RSI reading, it does not mean more than a 1-2 days long correction, in all probability.
A little more than a dozen points, that is how much the cash S&P500 index fluctuated so far this week. It is stuck right in the zone that we marked as “potential resistance” last week. The lengthy lull is a pause, when the entire market waits for a breakout to show direction at the top … SPX Hiatus – Waiting for a Short Term Top
We often hear objections like, “It’s too complex,” or “It takes too much effort” with regard to Elliott’s wave theory. But, anything worthwhile usually takes effort, and is complex, and those that endure the learning process to undertake such endeavors are generally rewarded. We use Elliott because it is effective at classifying market moves, but … SPY (SPX) lines in play
Many longer term investors, and traders, believe the stock market is unstoppable to the upside. And, over the past two years or so, they’ve been right. But, we have not seen resistance hold back bulls this firm for quite a long time. We can almost sense the lack of confidence in every bullish breakout attempt … Will the S&P top? How and When?
Oversold and overbought are two technical analysis words that I’d like to ban! The phrases seem to suggest that a stock, currency or futures contract really should not decline, or advance, anymore. In an overextend wave, however, we should not attempt to expect anything rational from the highly emotional driven price trend. Wave extensions are … Oversold, Another Word for Downtrend
Markets. The place for surprises beyond imagination. Anomalies, panics, hysterias, chaos, manias and other extremes that are almost inconceivable. They happen just because humans think that they are in control, or take something for granted, and they lull into a false sense of security. Illusion of control that is. They think that the probability of … Why I Love To Day Trade
What is this bearish streak of five bars in the S&P500 and other US indexes? Is this just a correction or a new global financial meltdown? Some multi-timeframe momentum analysis might come handy in the understanding the nature and scale of the wave, which is how we arrive at our conclusion. “When a time frame produces … The S&P Momentum and the Ugly Bear Bars
Do your New Year’s resolutions include making more money? Possibly by improving your trading performance, or, perhaps, to transition your career towards trading? Good idea. The best advice we can give you to achieve those goals is to discover an “edge” in seven key areas. You might find these edges in a book, membership service, seminar or training course. Or you might not. You should be looking for an advantage, in the following areas, otherwise the system you follow is, quite frankly, inadequate…
I just completed the 10K Christmas Run in Santa Monica, CA last weekend. My personal ambition is to fight my way back into competitive (age group) running; but, in addition to fitness, this activity also serves me in another way as a trader. To be honest, I was not always aware how much exercising might be an important performance … How to Cope With Trader’s Stress
We set price targets because they are one of the three essential variables of a setup; target (reward), point of ruin (risk) and probability. We do the math to make sure that the price level we choose as target is attainable with a probability that’s high enough. We also check whether the entry levels provide enough of a ride … The “Point of Profit” Reference
Most articles that are about S&P 500 forecasts will start with that upfront. But, we’re different here at Trader Skillset, because we want to share the thought process, in addition to the forecast. It’s the equivalent of “teaching one to fish” rather than “providing a free meal.” So, we’re going to bury the lede, and … A Nasty Grind – S&P500 Update
Before boarding a recent flight to Amsterdam, I grabbed the October 24-26 weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Reading the news is quite out of the ordinary for me, a full time trader who relies almost exclusively on price action. The only reason I got my hands on the paper was solely to … Price is the Ultimate Source, WSJ is entertainment
Every trader might have a different answer based on their personality and process, but we do see many common traits. Many might think that it’s an ability to analyze a chart, and while that skill is important, it might only be 10-20% of the answer. Today, we will share our evaluation checklist that defines the areas where successful traders get the edge day-by-day, setup-after-setup.
In Part I of “Trading the Google earnings report” we covered Step 1, the short term overall market picture by analyzing the Nasdaq 100 index chart. We still have 3 more steps to discuss, but before that, a catch up on Wednesday’s trading session. The strong reversal of the last two hours of trading is … Trading the Google Earnings Report – Part II
We often see sideways corrections being somewhat skewed in the direction of the preceding trend leg. For example, in a bull trend the market suddenly turns down for a couple of bars (wave A) then forms a marginal higher high above the peak (wave B) and when many expect price to return at least to the … How Running Corrections are Born?
Elliott waves are powerful, but they don’t make one omnipotent. For instance the S&P500 quarterly bar chart’s trend is bullish and the monthly is bullish; but, the weekly bull trend is ripe for a pullback based on RSI trend analysis. The daily on the other hand got stuck at 62 on the RSI which suggest … One Wave at a Time on the S&P 500
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Now that the S&P 500 has reached the 2000 level, investors and traders are becoming more comfortable with the idea that prices will simply continue higher, for years. On the bear side we hear the argument about the extreme levels of optimism which should reverse the market big time. Who is right? For sure, a trader pays attention to something else.
A popular topic lately is the discussion of the bull market in US stocks now that the S&P 500 is at 2000. How much further might it go? We have already covered the process we would like to see before we change from bullish to bearish in a previous post about how to identify a trend change. Personally, as a trader I … S&P 500 at 2000 – How high can it go?
Today’s bear bar seems very muscular without considering the context; large size with a failed breakout attempt on the top and a close near the low of the day. Bear reversals tend to succeed in bear trends when they reverse a weak bull leg against the resuming bear trend. This is absolutely not the case … Anti-Signal: Is There Any Juice Below Today’s S&P Bear Break?
At the end of the 1800s Charles Dow’s market theory had already included some hints about the three phases of market trends. Deliberately I use the word “hint,” because his principles are formulated much too vaguely to build an active trading strategy with. According to Dow, the first phase is a slow up leg governed … From Dow to Broccoli
To learn to trade successfully, you need create your own systematic approach and trading plan from which you are able to make your own decisions. Successful trading requires a unique understanding of markets, core risk-taking ability, temperament, perception and even a compatible lifestyle. Trading is certainly not a product in a box that you can buy with … Learn to Trade – Your System
It takes more than a single candlestick, or pattern, to enter a trade, even if it meets an optimum set of criteria. Candlestick patterns are just one signal that we utilize to alert us when the short term price action lines up with the long term context. As Jeffrey Kennedy from Elliott Wave International puts … Ideal Reversal and Continuation Signals
Many traders have a basic understanding of momentum. But, we think most traders would benefit from three tweaks to the traditional thoughts on the topic. In fact, in our proprietary trading system, momentum helps to identify and confirm the context; and, as such, it is the link between historical prices and the short term signals. Traditional Momentum … Three Times the Speed