Here are a couple of charts we had requests for. Oil Our call back in 2014 was for oil to collapse down towards the 2009 low. At the time, it seemed almost silly. But, it indeed came to pass. Now what? Well, although there was a slight RSI divergence into the low, oil isn’t out … Wolf’s Prey Bonus Charts
Following the harsh bear spiral on the crude oil market in 2014, not much price change has happened so far this year. The year’s overall sideways look, and the sustainable bear RSI levels on the weekly chart, suggest the continuation of the bearish tendencies. As we put it in the Glossary section of TraderSkillset.com, when … Crude Oil Chart with Elliott and RSI from Laszlo’s Trading Room
As we’ve written many times here, “Policy Divergence” is a US dollar bull fantasy. This week, as risk markets became unglued, the probability of a rate hike in September is around 30% based on the Fed Funds futures market. In fact, there’s now only a 50/50 chance of any rate hike this year. Add to … Nailed It! Elliott Wave Forecasts Prove Correct
Looking at the S&P500 chart we can consider the structure as an ending diagonal in Intermediate wave (5) of Primary  position. The diagonal has been under construction since October 2014 when price carved out the Intermediate wave (4) low. The S&P500 has started to respect every possible resistance from early December and has played … Into Laszlo’s Trading Room: S&P500 Almost on the Go
You have an opportunity to spend the next week learning how you can spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.
Elliott Wave International (EWI) is hosting a free Trader Education Week April 22-28. Register for this event and have instant access to 3 free trading resources from EWI Senior Instructor and Chartered Market Technician, Jeffrey Kennedy. Now you have the opportunity to be a student in his online classroom, as he takes complex technical methods and tools and breaks them down so that you can apply them to your trading immediately. Then you will receive new lessons each day during Trader Education Week — also designed to help you learn to spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.
Day 1 lesson: The Power of Context
Day 2 lessons: Understanding Price Gaps and Japanese Candlesticks
Day 3 lessons: Targeting with the Wave Principle and The Key to Successful Trading
It’s one thing to listen to other people’s trading advice, but wouldn’t you rather learn how to spot trading opportunities for yourself? Don’t miss this opportunity to get new, practical lessons every day through April 28!
We would like to welcome our latest Twitter follower, the esteemed David Einhorn who is the founder and President of Greenlight Capital, a long/short hedge fund. We are honored, humbled and motivated to continue to strive for excellence through promotion of our Context, Momentum, Signal trading approach for all of our Twitter followers, but David’s addition … Time For Business Insider to Update Its Numbers
The SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) was able to poke into the green “sustainable bull momentum area” not just once but three times. I bet many traders see the gradual increase of the last two days as a wedge or ending diagonal, just like the RSI does; but, at this high of an RSI reading, it does not mean more than a 1-2 days long correction, in all probability.
A little more than a dozen points, that is how much the cash S&P500 index fluctuated so far this week. It is stuck right in the zone that we marked as “potential resistance” last week. The lengthy lull is a pause, when the entire market waits for a breakout to show direction at the top … SPX Hiatus – Waiting for a Short Term Top
Many longer term investors, and traders, believe the stock market is unstoppable to the upside. And, over the past two years or so, they’ve been right. But, we have not seen resistance hold back bulls this firm for quite a long time. We can almost sense the lack of confidence in every bullish breakout attempt … Will the S&P top? How and When?
What is this bearish streak of five bars in the S&P500 and other US indexes? Is this just a correction or a new global financial meltdown? Some multi-timeframe momentum analysis might come handy in the understanding the nature and scale of the wave, which is how we arrive at our conclusion. “When a time frame produces … The S&P Momentum and the Ugly Bear Bars
We set price targets because they are one of the three essential variables of a setup; target (reward), point of ruin (risk) and probability. We do the math to make sure that the price level we choose as target is attainable with a probability that’s high enough. We also check whether the entry levels provide enough of a ride … The “Point of Profit” Reference
Most articles that are about S&P 500 forecasts will start with that upfront. But, we’re different here at Trader Skillset, because we want to share the thought process, in addition to the forecast. It’s the equivalent of “teaching one to fish” rather than “providing a free meal.” So, we’re going to bury the lede, and … A Nasty Grind – S&P500 Update
We often see sideways corrections being somewhat skewed in the direction of the preceding trend leg. For example, in a bull trend the market suddenly turns down for a couple of bars (wave A) then forms a marginal higher high above the peak (wave B) and when many expect price to return at least to the … How Running Corrections are Born?
Today we’ll take a closer look at our Elliott wave count for light sweet crude. Again, we do this to provide the Context of what a market “might do” or is likely to do. But, once we’ve gained some perspective, and formed an opinion, it’s time to do an analysis of Momentum, in Trader Skillset’s … Oil Due to Bounce, Should Be Corrective
Elliott waves are powerful, but they don’t make one omnipotent. For instance the S&P500 quarterly bar chart’s trend is bullish and the monthly is bullish; but, the weekly bull trend is ripe for a pullback based on RSI trend analysis. The daily on the other hand got stuck at 62 on the RSI which suggest … One Wave at a Time on the S&P 500
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Now that the S&P 500 has reached the 2000 level, investors and traders are becoming more comfortable with the idea that prices will simply continue higher, for years. On the bear side we hear the argument about the extreme levels of optimism which should reverse the market big time. Who is right? For sure, a trader pays attention to something else.
A popular topic lately is the discussion of the bull market in US stocks now that the S&P 500 is at 2000. How much further might it go? We have already covered the process we would like to see before we change from bullish to bearish in a previous post about how to identify a trend change. Personally, as a trader I … S&P 500 at 2000 – How high can it go?
Today’s bear bar seems very muscular without considering the context; large size with a failed breakout attempt on the top and a close near the low of the day. Bear reversals tend to succeed in bear trends when they reverse a weak bull leg against the resuming bear trend. This is absolutely not the case … Anti-Signal: Is There Any Juice Below Today’s S&P Bear Break?
Gold has been in a sideways pattern since its mid-2013 low. First, let’s cover the near term action on the daily chart (below). A secondary bottom formed in late December 2013, from which a rally ensued and topped in late March 2014 in C or 1. From there, we see a corrective decline with a … Gold Weakness Should be Bought