Traders, Take the Week Off…

EURUSD We’re still bearish, looking for an expanded flat to unfold for wave (ii). Ideally, prices will remain below the down trendline to keep our count firmly on track. Obviously, we have event risk this week with the Brexit vote happening on Thursday. We might have a sleepy week until then, and then strong whipsaws Traders, Take the Week Off…

Brexit is Bad News For EU’s Overpriced Bonds

EURUSD We suggested that the 61.8% Fibo level would be helpful to the bearish case if our top count was correct. Indeed, the sharp reversal from that level keeps our top count intact. Now, we can use the wave 2 high as our risk control for both trading, and our top count. Should prices push Brexit is Bad News For EU’s Overpriced Bonds

The Coming Japanese Debt Forgiveness, Per the Elliott Waves

EURUSD Last week was picture perfect for our EURUSD call. A corrective bounce led to sharply lower prices, and while we’re now at trendline support, and near the wave (iii) low, we’d err on the side of lower prices. A wave (iv) bounce is due to develop, but calling bounces in a larger downtrend is The Coming Japanese Debt Forgiveness, Per the Elliott Waves

Scenario Planning With Elliott Waves

EURUSD There’s no change to our bearish view, and we can now lower critical resistance to the wave (i) low at 1.1386. If our top count, and bearish view, is correct, then prices are unlikely to see that level again until the ultimate low near parity. Look for the up trendline to provide some support, Scenario Planning With Elliott Waves

Elliott Waves Clearer Than Brexit

EURUSD Friday’s break left a three wave rally in place, which we’ve labelled wave (ii). We may get an early week rally attempt, but we think the euro has turned lower. That’s not to say it’s going to be a straight shot lower, in fact, after reaching parity, it seems likely that EURUSD will be Elliott Waves Clearer Than Brexit

Equilibrium Models in a Disequilibrium World

The Wolf was fortunate enough to spend a few days last week at the headquarters of Goldman, Sachs. I say fortunate because it’s always nice to interact with smart, thoughtful people, even if you happen to disagree about the outcomes with the vast majority of these rocket scientists. Essentially the firm opinion is that a Equilibrium Models in a Disequilibrium World