The Wolf likes to think individual traders have some great advantages. We can sit around in cash, only taking risk when it’s appropriate. I’ve heard trading described as fishing, a lot of time waiting around, and very little time spent reeling them in. Our focus tends to be laser-like when we see a clear opportunity. … December Not September for FOMC Says Elliott Wave Forex Counts
This week, let’s get right into the charts for our Elliott wave forex forecasts. EURUSD Last week we were looking for a slight dip in EURUSD followed by an upside reversal, and that’s exactly what we got. We were leaning on two facts: 1. Daily RSI hadn’t fallen into Sustainable Bear territory (lower grey zone), … What Doesn’t Go Down – Elliott Wave Forex Counts
While Greek bondholders may have seen a reprieve, the euro didn’t this week. We’re going to lead off with the GBPUSD because it looks more constructive than EURUSD. Many risk assets rallied this past week, but others didn’t, such as junk bonds. The Wolf is still firmly in the camp of the Fed leaving rates … Dollar Reigns Supreme as Greek Can is Kicked
A fund manager friend of ours is fond of saying that European politics has always been dysfunctional, and it will always continue to be. After last week’s dramatic OXI vote from Greek citizens, the euro was sold reflexively, without regard to the euro being a stronger currency without its weakest link – Greece. With the … As the Euro Churns: Elliott Wave Edition
With the unprecedented IMF default from Greece this week, and the tacit admission from Puerto Rico that it is bankrupt, it seems that this credit cycle has peaked. Both are similar in nature to the March 2008 insolvency of Bear Stearns. At the time, The Wolf was short financials (LEH, MER, FED, FNM, etc.), and … Greece & Puerto Rico Influence Elliott Wave Forex Counts
As we said this weekend, a disorderly default seemed more likely. Whether or not the game of chicken between Greece and the troika ends in an official parting of the waves, or one side gives in (The Wolf believes one side will cave.) to the other’s demands, that won’t change our Elliott wave currency forecasts. … Elliott Wave Currency Update Post Greek Default
Last week we were looking for a continuation of the rally in the euro, which failed to materialize this week. As I write, it seems the Eurogroup is closer to allowing a Greek disorderly default. And, while that’s a possibility, that’s not what we are focusing on. Instead of focusing on fundamental developments, or only … How to Handle Stalled Elliott Wave Counts
Why does former resistance become support when prices push above it? And, why does former support become resistance when broken? There is one reason that this “reverse polarity” has ALWAYS been the case – human psychology, which never changes. The psychology has to do with an overwhelming desire to “take profits rather than losses.” Think … Elliott Wave Forex: The Trendline Breaks
As recently as March, many were calling for parity for the EURUSD. One Forbes article stated, “Like a hot knife through butter, the EUR has managed to penetrate its long-term medium target with ease (€1.0762). It’s near impossible to stop a runaway train…” While the Forbes article wasn’t making a direct forecast, it reflected sentiment … Euro Ready to Launch, Says Elliott Wave Currency Forecast
This week the Federal Reserve’s mouthpiece at the Wall Street Journal John Hilsenrath penned a letter questioning, with an almost baffled tone, why people aren’t freely spending money. While I could write a list of reasons why they aren’t, suffice it to say that the economy isn’t nearly as good as those holed up in their ivory towers assume. And why is that?
We’ve made no secret of our detest for Japanese monetary and fiscal policies, and the ultimate outcome for the yen. There’s little doubt the yen will ultimately end up in the currency dustbin of history, along with the Zimbabwean dollar and Venezuelan bolivar (The Wolf correctly called for Venezuelan hyperinflation in January 2010.). In fact, … The “Most Hated” Currency & Elliott Wave Forex Counts
USDJPY Back when writing as an analyst professionally, I was taught, “Don’t bury the lede.” In other words, start with the most interesting facet first, and that’s why we’re starting of with dollar/yen. It closed at a new high today, since its all-time low, and we’ve often pointed out the importance of Friday closes. Traders … Burning Yen & Elliott Wave Currency Forecasts
At the end of last week’s post, we lamented about the sorry state of monetary policy today. This week, we’re going to show a few charts that show some proof that the “adults have left the room” when it comes to prudent monetary policy. There’s only one tool the current crop of central bankers know … Monetary “Quacks” & Elliott Wave Currency Forecasts
This week, we’ll get right into the Elliott wave currency forecasts, since we’ve ended this week’s piece with a bit of a tirade against the buffoons that control monetary policy today. EURUSD The euro fulfilled our forecast for a push to a new high this week, which completed a five wave rally. The push higher … Gatsby’s Punch Bowl & Elliott Waves
You’ll notice from time-to-time that we’ll have multiple counts on our charts. In fact, The Wolf likes to think more in terms of probabilities of counts, rather than either/or. For example, the top count will usually be 50-85% probable, with the top alternate 15%-50%, and the second alternate 5%-20%. Doing that has a couple benefits … Combine Elliott & Wilder’s RSI For Clues
We’ve correctly called the early week USD weakness, especially against the pound and Kiwi. We tweeted out a bit earlier today that we’ve moved flat ahead of the US GDP announcement and Federal Reserve meeting that begins tomorrow. There’s still plenty of room to the upside under bullish Elliott views, but sometimes it’s just about managing risk and avoiding volatility. We’ll be looking to be dip buyers on GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
We started last week with a question, “What’s more important, Signals or Elliott waves?” Going into the week, we didn’t write, “this week we’re super confident of the outcomes,” but sometimes, you’re just in the zone. We were able to catch both the early week dollar rally, using EURUSD, and the late week dollar decline … When It All Goes According to Plan
Our weekly column that shows our Elliott wave currency forecasts is step one in our trading methodology – the Context. Steps two and three are Momentum and Signal. You have to start looking for opportunities somewhere, and for us, we build “themes” and weekly opportunities off of daily charts. But, just because we’ve generated an … Are Signals or Elliott Waves More Important?
The Wolf is here, back from vacation with a brief currency update. Stay tuned this week, as we’ll get to a full update and back to our normal schedule. Here’s our Elliott wave currency forecasts: EURUSD We nailed this count last week as we were looking for a rally into resistance followed by a new … Weekend Currency Update
The fractured nature of the dollar versus the various pairs we look at suggests no theme again this week. Some pairs look for dollar strength, others for dollar weakness. Often, that can point to opportunities in the crosses, although there seems to be some strong technical levels in our charts below. We’re writing on Thursday … Opportunities Abound
All of the pairs don’t agree on the near term path for the dollar. At a point in time like this, it’s best to view each of the pairs individually (as opposed to a dollar theme), and potentially look for opportunities in some crosses (EURGBP & CADJPY). Early week action may confirm several counts, and … Currencies At a Crossroad
The US dollar’s trend isn’t so unanimous anymore, is it? We’ve pointed out ad nauseum over the past several months that the Fed may balk at raising rates, may raise them awfully slowly when it finally does, and that a Greek default doesn’t have to mean a weaker euro. This week’s manic/depressive action in currency … Fugazi or the Real Deal?
On Thursday last week The Wolf sent a Tweet about the clear three wave decline in USDJPY. And, over the weekend we mentioned an “aggressively bullish” posture. The USDJPY has yet to push higher, and it has been triangulating further, which we show as the alternate count below. Regardless of which short term count is … Triangulation Continues For USDJPY
The euro refuses to stage any rally at all. In fact, most participants have become extreme in their thinking: Greece will exit the EU causing banking failures, deflation has ensnared the ECB and the US has “policy divergence.” Here’s the thing though, each and every one of those thoughts was also true six months ago … The Great Euro Collapse
A former mentor of mine used to say that, “A great trader can make money on average analysis, and an average trader can lose money on great analysis.” The Wolf prides himself on being both a great analyst, after having worked as a full-time Elliott wave analyst, and approaching great trader status. The Wolf dislikes … The Force is Strong
Here’s our Elliott wave currency forecast on the hourly chart for NZDUSD: I wanted to show some additional color on the kiwi, because we feel the rally has a little room to run. Here’s the details: First, we can see rallies a, c and a are all in five waves. Declines b, (x) and b … Clear 3-Wave Decline on 60-Minute Chart For NZDUSD
Thursday’s reversal in the dollar from support leaves our larger dollar sell-off call at risk. Many longer term players we’ve spoke with have “taken advantage” of the recent dollar sell-off to get bullish again. Maybe we’re wrong here, and the low isn’t in place, but we see an ending move even if the dollar has … The Dollar Wrestles for Control
A sideways, consolidating market usually means continuation. Here’s the tough part. Both the daily chart, and 240 minute charts have been moving sideways. The daily charts would suggest sideways equals continuation of the uptrend, but the shorter term charts suggest continuation of the budding uptrend. Generally we’ll defer to the larger degrees message, but in … A Sideways Week Means Dollar Pullback Can Continue
It’s not much, but it’s a start. That about sums up the ongoing counter trend rally in many USD pairs (EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF). We still believe that the longer term trend for the dollar is up, but a “reset” is needed to balance the market prior to the next bull wave. … Non-dollar Pairs Attempt to Lift
You’ll notice a different look with this week’s “Wolf’s Prey” Elliott wave currency forecasts. As we get closer to publishing more than once per week, we’ve moved to the shorter 240-minute charts as our default time frame, which is ideal for The Wolf’s swing trading style. We’ll still publish our longer term charts from time-to-time … A Chink in the USD’s Armour
Markets are constantly changing. Currencies in particular move from a “trending” status, to one of “ranging” status quite often. Recall 2013, when with the exception of the yen and Aussie, currency market volatility was extremely low, and it paid to buy dips and sell rallies, as markets made little net progress. That changed in 2014 … US Dollar Trend is Unanimous
On the back of Mario Draghi’s quantitative easing announcement, and a Canadian rate cut, the US dollar has become ever more popular, and the trend has become euphoric. A counter trend move is due, although it’s difficult to want to fight the trend without clear cut reversals. Wait for them to show up first. We … Dollar’s Run Turns Climactic
What a week in currency land. The biggest story, of course, was the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) realization that it’s not more powerful than the market. By removing the artificial peg versus the euro, it allowed the franc to strengthen, essentially admitting its mistake in creating the peg in the first place. Two items are … Swiss National Bank Cries Uncle
We’ve been talking for a while now about looking for evidence of a turn in the US dollar. Friday’s action was almost uniformly bearish for the buck. The NZDUSD in particular, along with the Aussie, appear to be bottoming according to our Elliott wave currency forecast. There’s still room for a final Elliott wave move … Dollar’s Rally Stalls
Welcome to 2015. We’re going to provide our long-term, monthly Elliott wave counts along with our shorter term counts to start off the year. This will provide some perspective for some of the counter trend rallies being called for. In addition, we’re going to discuss the difference between analysis and trading. Last week we wrote: … Monthly Charts for Perspective, Daily Charts for Trading
There’s still no evidence the larger US dollar rally is complete, although we do see that in NZDUSD. We’re not going to ignore reversals, although maybe the market is waiting for the calendar to turn 2015 prior to that. Right now, the meme is “the world is weak, the US is strong,” economically, and the dollar … Dollar Extends Gains as “Levitation” Continues
The US dollar rally is becoming a bit of a cliché, in part due to the Russian ruble’s collapse to start the week. However, by week’s end the Central Bank of Russia raised overnight interest rates from 10.5% to 17%, making it awfully expensive to bet against. Vladimir Putin told citizens to expect up to a 2-year … Running Flats Abound, Create Clear Wave Counts
The week isn’t quite complete, but The Wolf will be traveling again this weekend, so this week’s Wolf’s Prey comes slightly prior to Friday’s close. EURUSD Prices saw a substantial bounce from the .618 expansion target from the wave (iv) correction. This is consistent action with our idea of a Terminal Set Up and larger corrective bounce … Signs of US Dollar Weakness
The US dollar pushed to new highs versus most major pairs on Friday, leaving a lasting top elusive. It seems people are of the belief that the economy is improving in the US, and so rate hikes can’t be far off, and maybe they aren’t. Of course, according to the Federal Reserve, the economy isn’t … Dollar Rally “Topping Process” Continues
It can be worthwhile to step away from markets for a time as a way to refresh the mind, and come back with an objective viewpoint. The Wolf is on vacation, but thought a quick comment on the EURUSD was worth making. We’ve been talking about looking for a bottom in EURUSD, but the bounce from … Elliott Wave Currency Review
We are now seeing US dollar strength wane, and in some cases, reverse. Individual pair analysis now becomes more important than simply saying “the dollar will strengthen.” The dollar seems likely to weaken further versus NZD and AUD, so as we pointed out a few weeks ago, the “China slowing” meme is being reversed (see AUDUSD … US Dollar Rally Fractures
The US dollar has strengthened, pushing into new highs for the move, new lows for EURUSD. Friday’s reversal action shouldn’t be ignored though, since we’re looking for the largest countertrend rally to develop since the summer’s rally in USD began. Recall a couple of weeks ago, when we highlighted the “USD rally just beginning argument.” In … Dollar Reaches Targets, Reverses
Our post FOMC update mid-week shined a light on our thinking, and not much has changed. Look for strength in the USD to complete impulse waves over the next couple of weeks in some of our major pairs. Sentiment should reach extremes, as is the case AFTER extended moves have already been seen. Don’t fall … USD Strength Part of a Terminal Set Up?
Today’s expected announcement, that the Federal Reserve thinks the US economy is in good enough shape to allow Quantitative Easing (QE) to come to an end, has many calling for extended USD gains. And, while we do indeed expect some near term gains, we think many newfound US dollar bulls are likely to be disappointed … FOMC Ends QE3, and That’s Bearish for USD?
Recall a couple of weeks ago when a mainstream business news reporter and a “famous” newsletter writer proclaimed, “The beginning of the USD bull market.” We mentioned at the time that it was ironic that someone could state that a bull market was “beginning,” considering the USD had been up for 12 weeks in a row (The “beginning” … Dollar Strength Will Complete Impulse
Clearly corrective action has developed in both USDCHF and last week’s favorite USDCAD. Other pairs suggest dollar strength ahead too, but some of that may be “terminal action.” USDCHF and USDCAD remain our favorite major pairs; could the Swiss National Bank (SNB’s foolish EUR/CHF floor) and oil price weakness (leading to USDCAD strength) come into traders’ focus coming up? USDCHF … USDCHF at Support, SNB Foolishness Ahead?
Last week we pointed out that sentiment, and our counts, suggested a pause in the 12-week-in-a-row dollar rally. Specifically, we wrote, “there might be some further follow through to the upside early next week, but I’d bet against the US Dollar Index closing out the week with another gain.” That’s not to say we’re now dollar … US Dollar Breaks 12-Week Rally
The Wolf met with a very well respected team of London-based emerging market debt/currency managers in New York on Thursday who confirmed our suspicions about trouble ahead for emerging market currencies. At Trader Skillset, we use technical analysis above all else to determine Context, but sometimes understanding fundamentals can clarify and strengthen a previously held opinion*. According to The … Currency or Debt Crisis in Turkey
Over the summer, it’s been a nice run for the US Dollar. Last week, I noticed two mainstream commentators in particular calling for further dollar strength – one was a Bubblevision reporter, saying, “It’s not too late” to buy dollars (King Dollar Rules) , and the other a popular newsletter writer saying the USD was at … Is the US Dollar Rally, Just “Beginning?”
FOCUS CHART OF THE WEEK: USDCAD Last week we wrote, “A pullback would be welcomed now, since the larger corrective pattern, wave 4, is complete, and new highs above 1.1300 should be seen.” A pullback is what we saw this week, and with Friday’s upside reversal, it’s possible that we’re about to push higher in … CAD in Trouble – The Wolf’s Prey Currency Review
In the weekend edition of the Wolf’s Prey we detailed the longer term Context for the major currency pairs. This time, in the special interim edition we’re going to go through our weekly charts for some of the euro crosses, yen crosses and exotics; EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, EURGBP, EURAUD, USDNOK, USDMXN, USDZAR, USDTRY is in discussion.
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Last week we covered Trader Skillset’s longer term views in the majors, which are basically unchanged this week. Now we’ll begin to drill down to the daily charts where we can identify more swing trading opportunities. EUR/USD Prices found support this week, arguably at the wave (iii) bottom. It’s entirely possible that the current bounce is … Major Forex Pairs’ Daily Context