In my last post I mentioned an upcoming vacation. My last day on vacation, however, we received the news every parent dreads. My brother’s two-year-old son passed away after a tragic accident. The last week and a half I spent trying to calm, comfort and console the unexplainable.
For the last couple of weeks, the Fed’s foolish monetary policy and the coming debt debacle seemed unworthy of any attention. It’s with a heavy heart that I return to work. But work we must, for the monetary and fiscal authorities have created an environment that is as dangerous as it has ever been.
The Wolf will return with a full update this weekend.
The rally did push above the down trendline show on the late September update. That turned us neutral, but you’ll notice that prices weren’t able to hold the push above 1.1432. The bearish engulfing pattern the following day (10/15) put the bears back in control. We’re bearish against 1.1495, but it’ll take a break of the red up trendline to put the bears firmly in control. Until then, we can’t rule out one final push up to complete wave (c) of 2, or even the bigger push for (Z).
We don’t believe that the Fed is going to raise rates in 2015, or 2016 for that matter, so it’s hard to want to be too bullish the dollar. But, there’s plenty of economic problems to go around in Europe, and you’ll notice that daily RSI still hasn’t pushed into “Sustainable Bull” since the wave (Y) top. Although, neither has it probed into “Sustainable Bear” on the daily, even though the last weekly bar signal was precisely that.
One pair that argues against our top count in EURUSD is the kiwi. Our top count here remains on track. We’ve have drawn a red line off the wave i high, which the wave iv bottom must remain above. That sets up a good support area with the up trendline drawn off the low. We’ll see if NZDUSD can hold .6562 in its attempt to trace out five waves up from the low.
The time zone we reference on our charts is Pacific Standard Time. Therefore, the U.S. cash market opens at 6:30 AM PST and closes at 1:00 PM PST.